Washington's primary election may have been the undercard.The main event comes in November, when voters will decide whether to repeal the state's newly enacted
Washington's primary election may have been the undercard.
The main event comes in November, when voters will decide whether to repeal the state's newly enacted tax on annual individual income above $1 million.
Initiative 645, sponsored by Let's Go Washington founder Brian Heywood, would repeal the 9.9% tax and prohibit state and local governments from imposing taxes on individual income. The measure has qualified for the November ballot.
But after Tuesday's primary, both sides are looking for signs of what voters might do this fall.
One potential signal: Lawmakers who supported the millionaires tax generally showed strength in the primary, including Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen, D-Seattle, the bill's prime sponsor. Pedersen comfortably led a three-way race in Seattle's heavily Democratic 43rd Legislative District and will advance to November.
That could suggest voters are not looking to punish Democratic incumbents over the tax or the broader direction of the Legislature. But drawing a straight line from those races to Initiative 645 is difficult. The tax itself was not on the primary ballot, and November will bring a larger, and potentially different, electorate.
Heywood argues that distinction is critical.
"The income tax is not on the ballot, so I'm not super concerned about it," Heywood said in an interview Thursday. He also argued the issue cuts across party lines, saying his organization's analysis found more than half of those who signed the initiative identified as Democrats or independents.
Heywood was similarly reluctant to read too much into Pedersen's showing.
"I don't know if that's a bellwether to say this is where the state's going," he said.
The campaign opposing Initiative 645 sees reasons for optimism beyond Tuesday's results.
According to polling commissioned by the No on I-645 campaign and provided by the campaign, opposition to the repeal initiative increased between June and July, with 59% of respondents in the latest poll saying they planned to vote no.
Heywood says his organization has conducted its own polling but is not releasing the results publicly. He contends the outcome changes substantially depending on how voters understand the measure and whether they believe the $1 million threshold could eventually be lowered.
Under the law Gov. Bob Ferguson signed in March, the tax is scheduled to begin in 2028.
Supporters say the revenue will help pay for education, health care, tax relief and other state services. Opponents argue Washington is opening the door to a broader income tax in the future.
The November campaign is also quickly becoming expensive.
Public disclosure records have shown nearly $2.5 million in contributions from labor organizations backing the campaign to defeat Initiative 645 since July 9th.
Heywood expects spending to grow dramatically.
“I think that we need to raise collectively $20, $30 million,” he said, predicting unions could ultimately spend $50-$60 million during the election cycle.
Former state senator and current Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Joe Nguyen says the political terrain will also change between the August primary and November general election. Nguyen took over leadership of the Chamber in January after previously serving in the Legislature and as director of the state Department of Commerce.
“The general election is generally going to be more progressive,” Nguyen said.
At the same time, he said economic frustration could complicate the debate, citing taxes, the business climate, and the state’s economic outlook.
That affordability argument is also central to Heywood’s case. He says voters will ultimately judge whether higher state spending has produced results they can see in schools, roads and ferries.
Primary turnout itself may be another reason for caution in treating Tuesday as a preview. Heywood said turnout among people who had signed at least one Let’s Go Washington initiative was running higher than the statewide rate, but he acknowledged getting those voters to participate in November remains a central challenge for his campaign.
Supporters of the millionaires tax can point to strong performances by many of the lawmakers who enacted it, growing campaign resources and their own polling showing voters leaning toward keeping the tax.
Heywood can argue none of those races asked voters the question they will face in November.
That is when Washington voters will decide whether the state’s new millionaires tax survives and whether Tuesday’s primary was a preview of that decision or a very different fight altogether.
