A single sentence on the November ballot could reshape the fight over Washington’s millionaires tax, and new polling shows it may have a real impact.
A single sentence on the November ballot could reshape the fight over Washington’s millionaires tax, and new polling shows it may have a real impact on the upcoming vote.
A new survey shows that language about possible cuts to schools and health care dramatically changes support for Initiative 645, which would repeal the millionaires tax the state Legislature approved in March.
It all hinges on the fiscal statement attached to I-645, which would repeal the 9.9% tax on annual household income above $1 million
The ballot language includes a statement from the state Attorney General’s Office saying the repeal “would decrease funding” for public K-12 education, higher education and human services, primarily health care.
The group behind I-645 tried to get that statement removed, arguing it is misleading because the tax will not start collecting money until 2029 and no current school or health care funding would be cut.
However, the state Supreme Court split 4-to-4, leaving the fiscal statement intact. Now both sides are fighting for every undecided voter in the closing weeks of the campaign.
"To say we're not collecting the tax revenue yet so we're not really losing any money, that's nonsense because we're expecting to get this money now," said Andrew Villeneuve, a spokesperson for the No on I-645 campaign.
A September survey of 800 Washington residents by DHM Research found that 57% of respondents shown that statement said they would vote no and keep the tax, while 35% said they would vote yes to repeal it.
Eight percent were undecided.
Among respondents shown ballot language without the fiscal statement, opposition fell to 44%, while support for repeal rose to 40%.
Sixteen percent were undecided.
"That is a significant drop in people's opinions," said Kara Krnacik with DHM Research. "Sometimes we'll see that it just moves a couple of percentage points which is within the margin of error but the margin of error for this is 4.9% so it is outside of that. It is a significant difference."
The difference was driven largely by increased support for keeping the tax among voters who saw the funding warning.
Support for repeal remained relatively steady in both versions of the survey.
Respondents shown the fiscal statement were also far more likely to cite protecting school funding as a reason to oppose repeal, 44% compared with 2% among those who did not see it.
“The majority of residents who would vote to keep the income tax, when they saw the impact statement, said it was because they wanted to protect education funding,” Krnacik said.
No one from the Yes on I-645 campaign was available to be interviewed for this story but the group sent a statement which said, "The latest polling from DHM shows that when Washington voters realize Olympia’s income tax is coming for them, they do not support it."
