The numbers are striking: Violent crime in the U.S. fell by 9.3% in 2025, the largest one-year decline since the FBI began estimating crime trends in 1936.
The numbers are striking: Violent crime in the United States fell by 9.3% in 2025, the largest one-year decline since the FBI began estimating national crime trends in 1936.
The murder rate fell even more sharply, dropping 18.1% to 4.1 killings per 100,000 people. That rate is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest murder rate in the FBI's national series.
Those numbers have become a talking point for Republicans crediting President Donald Trump's administration and its law-enforcement policies for the decline.
But the timeline matters: the decline in violent crime and homicide began before Trump returned to office in January 2025.
The decline was already underway
The FBI's latest data show violent crime fell from a rate of 362.9 offenses per 100,000 people in 2024 to 327.6 in 2025.
But the broader decline began earlier.
FactCheck.org and other crime researchers have documented that violent crime and homicide had already been falling before Trump's second term. Homicides increased sharply during the pandemic in 2020, remained elevated in 2021, and then began declining in 2022.
The Council on Criminal Justice found that homicides in its sample of large U.S. cities fell 17% from 2023 to 2024, before the 2025 decline. In 2025, homicides in the cities providing data to CCJ fell another 21% from the previous year.
That means the 2025 numbers represent a continuation — and acceleration — of a trend that was already in progress.
Which crimes fell?
The decline was not limited to homicide.
According to the FBI, murder and non-negligent manslaughter fell 18.1% in 2025. Robbery declined 18.5%, rape fell 7.6% and aggravated assault declined 7.2%.
Property crime also fell by an estimated 12.4%. Motor vehicle theft declined 22.7%, while burglary fell 15.8% and larceny-theft declined 9.8%.
The Council on Criminal Justice found similar declines in its analysis of 40 large cities. But not every category moved in the same direction: Drug offenses increased 7% in the cities studied, while sexual assault was essentially unchanged.
What is causing the decline?
That's where the picture becomes more complicated.
Researchers have not identified one definitive explanation for the recent drop in crime.
The Council on Criminal Justice says possible influences include changes in criminal justice policy and practice, shifts in people's routines and social behavior, economic conditions, technology use and local violence-prevention efforts. The organization cautions that identifying which factors are decisive is difficult because multiple changes are happening at the same time.
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, told The Associated Press that homicide rates are falling in cities with very different public-safety strategies, economic conditions and political leadership. He said that makes it difficult to assign credit to one leader, party, policy or program before the evidence is available.
That does not mean federal or local policies have no effect on crime. It means the national data alone cannot establish how much of the decline can be attributed to any particular administration or policy.
